Mitre 10 Cup 2016 – Previews – Week 9

Which is just the way we like it.

Here’s our guide to who to cheer for in the final weekend of round robin rugby. We haven’t tried to work out every scenario here; after all, how likely is it that there’ll be a draw in which a side scores four tries? Tasman and North Harbour have two chances to boost their positions, with matches on Wednesday and Sunday.

While you’re at it though: how about a cheer for the match officials as well, since we couldn’t have a game without them!

Details for the semifinals will be released once confirmed, following the final match.

If teams are tied on competition points, here are the tiebreak rules:

In case two teams are tied on competition points after round robin, here’s what happens:
i) The winner of the round robin match between the two sides has the higher position
ii) If the match was drawn, or in the unlikely event they didn’t play a round robin match, then it goes to points difference

If three (or more) teams are tied on competition points, here’s what happens:
i) The team that has earned the most competition points against the other teams has the higher position
ii) If there’s still a tie, it goes to points difference

Should teams still be tied after looking at previous results and points difference, then here’s how the tie gets broken:
i) The team with the most tries across the competition has the higher position
ii) If tries scored across the competition is the same, then the team with the most points goes ahead

And if the tie still isn’t broken, it comes down to the toss of a coin!

In the Premiership

Auckland
Playing: Taranaki, Thursday 13 October at Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth
Current position: Fourth (Premiership)
This is a must-win match for Auckland. A loss and they could be overtaken by Tasman and/or Waikato and be out of semifinal contention all together. A win – and a Counties Manukau loss to Canterbury – could see them host a home semifinal.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Second
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Sixth
Who to cheer for: Auckland, North Harbour, Canterbury, Southland and Wellington

Canterbury
Playing: Counties Manukau, Saturday 15 October at ECOLight Stadium, Pukekohe
Current position: First (Premiership)
Canterbury are safe at the top of the table, with home ground advantage for their semifinal already secured. The results of four other matches this round will determine who the fourth-placed team is that will be travelling to Christchurch next weekend.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: First
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: First
Who to cheer for: Canterbury – and the team you’d most like to face in the semis

Counties Manukau
Playing: Canterbury, Saturday 15 October at ECOLight Stadium, Pukekohe
Current position: Third (Premiership)
Counties Manukau need a win to be sure of a spot in the semifinal. A loss and they could be overtaken by Auckland, Tasman and/or Waikato. A win – and the right combination of other results – could see the Steelers hosting a semifinal in Pukekohe.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Second
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Sixth
Who to cheer for: Counties Manukau, Auckland, North Harbour, Wellington and Southland

Hawke’s Bay
Playing: Bay of Plenty, Saturday 15 October at McLean Park, Napier
Current position: Seventh (Premiership)
Last weekend’s loss to Waikato means that Hawke’s Bay will be returning to the Championship in 2017 regardless of this weekend’s results. However, a win over Bay of Plenty in front of a home crowd would be a great way to end the season.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Seventh
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Seventh
Who to cheer for: Hawke’s Bay

Taranaki
Playing: Auckland, Thursday 13 October at Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth
Current position: Second (Premiership)
A win over Auckland should see the Bulls hosting a semifinal but a loss could cost them a place in the semis all together. Counties Manukau, Auckland and Tasman could all overtake them, with the Makos having two chances to earn the competition points they need.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Second
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Fifth
Who to cheer for: Taranaki, Canterbury, North Harbour and Southland

Tasman
Playing: North Harbour, Wednesday 12 October at QBE Stadium, North Harbour AND Southland, Sunday 16 October at Trafalgar Park, Nelson
Current position: Fifth (Premiership)
Tasman have two games this round, against Championship teams. They could end up hosting a semi if they win both – with their chances improved by an Auckland win over Taranaki – but two losses could see them miss out entirely.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Second
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Sixth
Who to cheer for: Tasman, Canterbury, Auckland and Wellington

Waikato
Playing: Wellington, Saturday 15 October at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Current position: Sixth (Premiership)
Waikato head to Wellington needing a big win – and some key results to go their way – to secure a spot in the semifinals. They can’t catch Canterbury or Taranaki and lost to Counties Manukau in the round robin so they really need a bonus point to have a good chance and for Auckland and Tasman to lose their matches.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Third
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Sixth
Who to cheer for: Waikato, Taranaki, North Harbour, Canterbury and Southland

In the Championship Bay of Plenty
Playing: Hawke’s Bay, Saturday 15 October at McLean Park, Napier
Current position: Fifth (Championship)
Sitting just one point outside the semifinals heading into the weekend’s matches, Bay of Plenty need a big win over the Magpies to boost themselves up into contention and for the Turbos and North Harbour to stumble – remembering that Harbour have two matches.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Third
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Fifth
Who to cheer for: Bay of Plenty, Tasman, Otago, and Northland

Manawatu
Playing: Otago, Friday 14 October at Central Energy Trust Arena, Palmerston North
Current position: Third (Championship)
They can’t host a semifinal but a win will keep the Turbos’ chances of playing in one alive. A loss would make them vulnerable to being overtaken by Bay of Plenty and/or North Harbour, especially as Harbour have two chances to earn competition points.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Third
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Fifth
Who to cheer for: Manawatu, Tasman, Hawke’s Bay and Northland

North Harbour
Playing: Tasman, Wednesday 12 October at QBE Stadium, North Harbour AND Northland, Sunday 16 October at Toll Stadium, Whangarei
Current position: Fourth (Championship)
North Harbour have two matches this round and one win should be enough to keep them safe in the semifinals. However, a loss (or two) and a big Bay of Plenty win could see them out of contention so losses by the Turbos and the Steamers will be useful.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Third
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Fifth
Who to cheer for: North Harbour, Otago and Hawke’s Bay

Northland
Playing: North Harbour, Sunday 16 October at Toll Stadium, Whangarei
Current position: Seventh (Championship)
Northland are just one point behind Southland so could finish in sixth place in the Championship with a win over North Harbour and the Stags going down to Tasman. If those two teams end up tied on competition points, Southland will go ahead because they got the win in Week Eight.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Sixth
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Seventh
Who to cheer for: Northland and Tasma

Otago
Playing: Manawatu, Friday 14 October at Central Energy Trust Arena, Palmerston North
Current position: First (Championship)
Safe in the semis and confirmed as hosts, Otago need a win – and preferably a Wellington loss – to keep hold of the top spot. Otago had a win over Wellington back in Week Two so if they remain tied on competition points, they will top the Championship.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: First
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Second
Who to cheer for: Otago, Waikato and the results that will get you the opponent you want in the semifinals.

Southland
Playing: Tasman, Sunday 16 October at Trafalgar Park, Nelson
Current position: Sixth (Championship)
The Stags can’t make the playoffs or move up a spot but a win would keep them off the bottom of the table as well as being a great way to finish the 2016 season. Northland going down to North Harbour would also be a good thing for Southland’s final position.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Sixth
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Seventh
Who to cheer for: Southland and North Harbour

Wellington
Playing: Waikato, Saturday 15 October at Westpac Stadium, Hamilton
Current position: Second (Championship)
The Lions are hungry to return to the Premiership and with a home semifinal locked in, they’re doing the right things to get there. Otago are ahead of them because they got the win in round robin, but if Otago loses to Manawatu and Wellington beat Waikato then they’ll claim the top spot in the Championship.
Best case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: First
Worst case at the end of Mitre 10 Cup: Second
Who to cheer for: Wellington, Manawatu and the results that will get you the opponent you want in the semifinals.